In recent years I have tried to avoid blogging on scottish politics for reasons too complicated to go into. But after a week of reading silly tweets, press releases, blog posts, and articles I have been stirred from my silence. Here are, in no particular order, some thoughts on referendum polling.
1. The credibility of opinion pollsters for their general business is dependent on having a pretty good level of accuracy in relation to polling for high profile things, like big public votes. The pollsters therefore, in good faith, do their best to get the most accurate reflection of opinion. For either side in the referendum to claim X is in the pocket of the other lot is a bit cheap. Sometimes you don’t get the result you would like to hear because you are not hearing what the public likes.
2. There may be things that are difficult to…
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